Pace expectations and the online calculator

Your guess is as good as mine

Today's workout (elliptical): 25 minutes

Thinking about two of my planned races in November, both 10K's, I decided to analyze my performance at other race distances to help me manage my expectations. My PR for a 5K is 25:50, or 8:19 per mile. Both times I've run 8K's I've averaged 9:00 per mile. That means that adding 3K (1.86 miles) caused my speed to degrade by 8.2%. That's a big drop for not much incremental distance. Averaging all my 5K's, my pace is 8:31 meaning that I generally lose 6% when going from 5K to 8K. My 10K track record is spotty because I've only run one of them on pavement but my overall pace averages 9:32, or almost 12% higher than my 5K average. According to the calculators that you can find online that factor in age grading, V02 Max and other formulations, I should be averaging 8:50 per mile on 10Ks. That pace is based on my 5K average. It's a nice thought but I'm not sure how to get there.

For now I continue to focus on distance first and speed second. One thing that seems obvious is that adding more length to my runs and maintaining a consistent pace will bring my power curve forward, past the 3 mile mile mark. I've run 8 miles at 9:15 so I know I can improve on my current performance. I'll keep that in mind this weekend when I rerun the Cow Harbor course in Northport.